2) Justin Jefferson (6794) — ADP 11, talent still elite, but 2025 was a disaster (183 PPR, 2 TDs, WR21). Kyler Murray is the new QB; rebound is the bet, not a lock. Other GMs already faded him (5 WRs went before him).
3) De'Von Achane (9226) — 322.8 PPR in 2025, best remaining PPR back. Pairing two RBs at the turn is viable in 10-team; WR depth is real.
4) Brock Bowers (11604) — TE1, 254 proj. McBride scored 302 in 2025 and is also there (8130). Elite TE is a weekly cheat code but ADP ~24; taking him at 11 is a 13-spot reach. Only if I want to lock positional scarcity and hunt WR at 30.
WHY NICO at 11: Highest remaining seas_proj. Three straight WR1 PPG. Jayden Higgins season-ending knee + Tank Dell IR = target vacuum opposite Collins. Texans run-heavy is noise; production has not cared. Jefferson faded (183 PPR / 2 TD in 2025, Kyler is a bet). Achane 322 last year but Dolphins supporting cast gutted (Tua/Waddle/Hill gone). Bowers TE1 but 13-spot reach at 11; can hunt TE later.
DO NOT take at 11: Josh Allen (too early when two elite skill players are sitting), Nabers (ACL+meniscus, Week 1 uncertain, extra cleanup surgery), Jeanty/Walker/Love (injury flags), Hampton (missed most of 2025).
DO NOT at 30/31: Josh Allen unless both elite WRs and remaining RB2s are gone (still too early vs skill). Nabers (ACL+meniscus, Week 1 uncertain). Walker foot / Jeanty knee / Love ankle / Hampton. K/DEF. Don't panic-QB.
BOARD READ: First 9 = 4 RB (Gibbs, Bijan, CMC, Taylor) + 5 WR (Chase, JSN, Puka, ARSB, CeeDee). No TE/QB. Market faded Jefferson and Cook slightly. Other GMs seem WR-heavy early.
PRIORITY 30/31 (in order, take BPA of):
1) Best remaining WR1/WR2: Olave, Rice, DeVonta, McConkey, Flowers, Higgins (heel flag), AJB/London/Pickens/Jefferson if they fall (won't).
2) Elite TE if Bowers or McBride somehow there — lock scarcity.
4) If board is WR-thin and RB-thin, consider Lamar/Maye only if both of 30/31 would otherwise be replacement-level.
LATER ROUNDS: Need WR depth if I go Cook+RB or Cook+TE. At 30/31 look Olave, Rice, DeVonta, McConkey, Flowers, Higgins. QB wait until Allen/Lamar/Maye range is gone if needed — Hurts/Daniels/Burrow still fine in 10-team. K/DEF last.
Need: WR2, RB2, FLEX, TE, QB, depth. Two picks at the turn — likely WR + RB or WR + TE.
BOARD READ so far: R1-2 start = 5 RB (Gibbs, Bijan, CMC, Taylor, Cook) + 5 WR (Chase, JSN, Puka, ARSB, CeeDee) then me Nico. Market faded Jefferson. Other GMs WR-heavy early except the RB-first four + me.
Identity: BPA with a scarcity lean. Don’t chase last year’s narrative (Jefferson) if the projection and three-year sample (Nico) are better. Don’t reach for QB. Talk little unless a trade window opens.